Notre Dame vs. Michigan State 2026: Predictions, Keys to Victory and What to Expect
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish return to Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, September 19, for a night game with the Michigan State Spartans. With Notre Dame ranked No. 3 nationally and entering the game at 2-0, the Irish have quickly established themselves as one of the teams to watch in the 2026 college football season.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, giving Notre Dame another opportunity to make a statement in front of a national audience. The Irish opened the season with an impressive victory over Wisconsin at Lambeau Field before following it up with a dominant 52-0 shutout of Rice.
Michigan State is also 2-0 after opening the season with victories over Toledo and Eastern Michigan. The Spartans, however, will face a significant step up in competition when they travel to South Bend. Michigan State is in its first season under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, making this matchup an especially intriguing test for the new Spartan regime.
A Rivalry Returns to South Bend
Notre Dame and Michigan State have a long history together, and this year’s meeting renews one of the more familiar rivalries in Irish football.
Notre Dame holds the all-time series advantage, and the Irish won the most recent meeting in 2017. The two programs are scheduled to meet again in East Lansing in 2027, making this the first game of a home-and-home series.
This game should have a different feel from Notre Dame’s first two contests. Wisconsin provided the Irish with a major early test, while Rice struggled to stay competitive against Notre Dame’s defense. Michigan State represents a more physical challenge and will be looking to turn the game into a fourth-quarter battle.
Notre Dame’s Offense Has Plenty of Momentum
Through two games, Notre Dame’s offense has shown that it can attack opponents in multiple ways.
Quarterback CJ Carr enters the Michigan State game with valuable experience already under his belt, and the Irish offense appears to be gaining confidence. Notre Dame’s ability to establish the running game while taking advantage of opportunities through the air could make it difficult for Michigan State to keep pace.
The biggest question may be how aggressively Notre Dame wants to attack.
With a major stretch of the schedule still ahead, Marcus Freeman and his coaching staff have little reason to expose players unnecessarily if the Irish build a comfortable lead. At the same time, Notre Dame needs to continue developing its offensive consistency against stronger competition.
The goal should be to start fast, establish control and avoid giving Michigan State any reason to believe an upset is possible.
The Notre Dame Defense Could Be the Difference
The defense has arguably been the most impressive part of Notre Dame’s start.
After holding Wisconsin to 13 points in the season opener, the Irish defense completely shut down Rice in a 52-0 victory. Notre Dame has now outscored its opponents 93-13 through two games, a remarkable start for a team carrying national championship expectations.
Michigan State will need to find a way to move the football against a defense that has demonstrated excellent discipline and playmaking ability.
Notre Dame should concentrate on stopping the run, forcing Michigan State into obvious passing situations and creating pressure without allowing big plays behind the defense.
If the Irish can force Michigan State into third-and-long situations, the advantage should heavily favor Notre Dame.
What Notre Dame Needs to Do to Win
1. Start Fast
Notre Dame cannot afford to let Michigan State hang around.
The Irish are a heavy favorite, with early betting lines making Notre Dame roughly a 29.5-point favorite. That number illustrates how highly the Irish are regarded, but it also creates an expectation that Notre Dame should control the game from the beginning.
A quick touchdown or two could force Michigan State to abandon its preferred game plan.
2. Establish the Running Game
Notre Dame needs to make Michigan State defend the entire field.
A productive rushing attack would allow the Irish to control the clock, keep the defense fresh and create favorable passing situations for Carr.
If Notre Dame can consistently gain positive yardage on first and second down, the offense should have plenty of opportunities to produce explosive plays.
3. Protect CJ Carr
Michigan State’s best opportunity to disrupt Notre Dame will be generating pressure on Carr.
Notre Dame’s offensive line needs to keep the pocket clean and prevent the Spartans from creating negative plays. Carr has shown considerable potential, but the Irish do not need to make the game more difficult by putting their quarterback into obvious passing situations.
4. Win the Turnover Battle
This is particularly important in a game in which Notre Dame is heavily favored.
Michigan State’s easiest path to an upset would likely involve turnovers, short fields and special-teams advantages. Notre Dame needs to eliminate those opportunities.
If the Irish take care of the football while forcing Michigan State into mistakes, the game could get away from the Spartans quickly.
5. Don’t Overlook Michigan State
Perhaps the biggest challenge for Notre Dame is mental rather than physical.
The Irish are coming off a 52-0 victory and are ranked among the nation’s top teams. Michigan State, meanwhile, enters South Bend undefeated and will have nothing to lose.
Notre Dame has to treat this as a serious rivalry game rather than simply another opportunity to pad the win column.
What to Expect From Michigan State
Michigan State’s first two games under Pat Fitzgerald provide a glimpse of a program trying to establish a tougher identity.
The Spartans opened the season with a 30-20 victory over Toledo and followed it with a 35-7 win over Eastern Michigan. Neither opponent compares with Notre Dame’s talent level, however, so Saturday night will provide the first major measuring stick for Fitzgerald’s team.
Michigan State’s best strategy will likely be to make the game physical, shorten the contest and prevent Notre Dame from producing quick scores.
If the Spartans can stay within one or two possessions into the second half, the pressure will shift toward the Irish. That makes the opening 30 minutes particularly important.
Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Michigan State 13
Notre Dame should win this game, and the Irish have enough talent on both sides of the ball to control the matchup.
Michigan State deserves credit for beginning the Fitzgerald era with two victories, but Notre Dame represents a completely different level of competition. The Irish have already demonstrated that they can win a physical game against Wisconsin and dominate an overmatched opponent like Rice.
The prediction here is Notre Dame 38, Michigan State 13.
Michigan State may be able to make a few plays early, particularly with the emotion of playing at Notre Dame Stadium under the lights. Eventually, however, Notre Dame’s depth and overall talent should take over.
Look for the Irish to establish the running game, create pressure defensively and pull away during the second half.
A convincing victory would move Notre Dame to 3-0 and provide another important step toward its larger postseason goals.
Final Thoughts
The Michigan State game represents an important checkpoint for Notre Dame.
The Irish have already shown they can dominate opponents, but Saturday night should provide a better indication of how the team handles a physical opponent with enough talent to compete for stretches.
Notre Dame does not need to do anything spectacular. It needs to play clean football, protect the quarterback, control the line of scrimmage and force Michigan State to drive the length of the field.
If the Irish do those things, another convincing victory could be waiting under the lights at Notre Dame Stadium.
Notre Dame vs. Michigan State FAQ
When does Notre Dame play Michigan State in 2026?
Notre Dame plays Michigan State on Saturday, September 19, 2026.
Where is the Notre Dame vs. Michigan State game being played?
The game will be played at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana.
What time does Notre Dame vs. Michigan State start?
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
What TV channel is carrying Notre Dame vs. Michigan State?
The game will be televised nationally on NBC and will also be available through Peacock.
What is Notre Dame’s record entering the Michigan State game?
Notre Dame enters the matchup with a 2-0 record after defeating Wisconsin and Rice.
What is Michigan State’s record entering the game?
Michigan State is also 2-0 after victories over Toledo and Eastern Michigan.
Who is favored to win Notre Dame vs. Michigan State?
Notre Dame is a significant favorite. Early lines have installed the Irish as roughly 29.5-point favorites.
What does Notre Dame need to do to beat Michigan State?
The Irish need to establish the running game, protect CJ Carr, avoid turnovers, pressure the Michigan State quarterback and prevent explosive plays.
Could Michigan State upset Notre Dame?
Any undefeated team presents a potential challenge, but Michigan State will have to play a nearly mistake-free game and find a way to slow Notre Dame’s offense. The Spartans’ best chance is to keep the game close into the second half and create turnovers or short-field opportunities.
What is the prediction for Notre Dame vs. Michigan State?
Notre Dame is predicted to win 38-13. The Irish have the advantage in overall talent, defensive play and offensive firepower, and playing at home should provide another advantage.